Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-23 0.023243 0.026414 0.029870 0.033921 0.038541 0.043649 0.049730
2025-03-02 0.017834 0.022056 0.027073 0.033482 0.041468 0.051110 0.063669
2025-03-09 0.015326 0.020070 0.026044 0.034138 0.044851 0.058593 0.077635
2025-03-16 0.013204 0.018112 0.024590 0.033800 0.046608 0.063873 0.089050
2025-03-23 0.012054 0.017216 0.024317 0.034844 0.050133 0.071661 0.104503
2025-03-30 0.010501 0.015539 0.022722 0.033769 0.050441 0.074836 0.113566
2025-04-06 0.009398 0.014361 0.021676 0.033311 0.051496 0.079064 0.124469
2025-04-13 0.008275 0.013021 0.020230 0.032055 0.051139 0.081022 0.131934
2025-04-20 0.007844 0.012698 0.020286 0.033109 0.054456 0.088952 0.149684
2025-04-27 0.007416 0.012328 0.020218 0.033931 0.057436 0.096564 0.167628
2025-05-04 0.007075 0.012061 0.020280 0.034950 0.060809 0.105096 0.187961
2025-05-11 0.006545 0.011422 0.019656 0.034723 0.061983 0.109924 0.202162
2025-05-18 0.006116 0.010930 0.019257 0.034883 0.063912 0.116360 0.220181
2025-05-25 0.005630 0.010291 0.018546 0.034416 0.064659 0.120741 0.234844
2025-06-01 0.005361 0.010021 0.018465 0.035092 0.067583 0.129402 0.258646
2025-06-08 0.004978 0.009502 0.017877 0.034744 0.068493 0.134278 0.275392
2025-06-15 0.004812 0.009380 0.018021 0.035818 0.072286 0.145126 0.305467
2025-06-22 0.004399 0.008739 0.017111 0.034713 0.071568 0.146835 0.316482
2025-06-29 0.004097 0.008292 0.016543 0.034241 0.072098 0.151123 0.333446
2025-07-06 0.003735 0.007693 0.015620 0.032949 0.070768 0.151363 0.341459
2025-07-13 0.003643 0.007645 0.015814 0.034033 0.074651 0.163132 0.376780
2025-07-20 0.003533 0.007548 0.015895 0.034879 0.078082 0.174221 0.411711
2025-07-27 0.003447 0.007494 0.016063 0.035928 0.082064 0.186907 0.451796